Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 26.491018 29.334375 32.574125 36.590800 41.513536 47.457823 55.356799
2025-02-23 22.203764 25.749598 30.139155 36.149219 44.480871 56.194131 75.195896
2025-03-02 19.614155 23.510330 28.638127 36.231400 47.932654 66.961328 105.546516
2025-03-09 17.659956 21.677815 27.210269 35.917736 50.573978 77.832260 148.340051
2025-03-16 16.159690 20.199926 25.962257 35.490729 52.792063 89.308401 213.822070
2025-03-23 14.985788 19.009190 24.915177 35.098504 54.881577 102.106234 327.131611
2025-03-30 14.063340 18.065021 24.088085 34.869639 57.184814 117.607008 571.197240
2025-04-06 13.162674 17.058624 23.027991 34.009071 57.855127 129.466328 1046.538002
2025-04-13 12.870724 16.932512 23.348923 35.733405 65.121454 174.413540 159731.652883
2025-04-20 12.255913 16.250481 22.663241 35.367465 67.076525 202.455520 NaN
2025-04-27 11.808019 15.792559 22.305015 35.594271 70.802108 251.237459 NaN
2025-05-04 11.429166 15.413532 22.040077 35.964728 75.204218 325.293482 NaN
2025-05-11 11.035705 14.990149 21.667349 36.068737 79.037955 426.418439 NaN
2025-05-18 10.593978 14.460036 21.055527 35.538698 80.552212 524.572608 NaN
2025-05-25 10.262385 14.091932 20.709621 35.576256 84.318802 742.010049 NaN
2025-06-01 9.916036 13.678378 20.243753 35.254217 86.613247 1034.960890 NaN
2025-06-08 9.586342 13.274915 19.765611 34.832850 88.384146 1499.913616 NaN
2025-06-15 9.286116 12.906144 19.326768 34.449569 90.241525 2440.437982 NaN
2025-06-22 9.024898 12.591164 18.969320 34.226419 92.860482 5587.578927 NaN
2025-06-29 8.718232 12.184001 18.405459 33.391548 92.073540 10167.624111 NaN
2025-07-06 8.680825 12.241171 18.759745 35.062572 106.026191 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 8.452070 11.951312 18.396967 34.707935 108.221539 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 8.289038 11.770388 18.243497 34.927632 114.471170 NaN NaN